Indian Recession

India 🇮🇳 to enter recession for the first time ever as GDP likely to shrink by 8.6% in second-quarter: RBI

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Indian economy अपने history मे first-time recessionary 📉 phase me enter कर चुकी है l In the second quarter (July-September) of the current financial year, with the Gross Domestic Product expected to contract by 8.6%, the Reserve Bank 🏦 of India said in a bulletin named ‘State of the Economy’ released on Wednesday 11 Nov 2020.

दो या दो से ज्यादा consecutive quarters मे negative economic growth ko recession define किया जाता है l India’s economy had contracted by an unprecedented 23.9% in first-quarter (April-June) of FY20-21, after being hit by the coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent economic slowdown. ‘Nowcasting’ the contraction in the second quarter based on quarterly results declared by 887 non-financial listed companies, whose sales remained in contraction in the second quarter. “Nowcasting” is the prediction of the present or the very near future of the state of the economy.

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The RBI, however, noted that the contraction is “With gradual normalization in activities and expected to be short-lived”. इसी bulletin 📑 में central bank ne कुछ indicator ko present kiya जैसे aggregate demand, Goods and Services Tax collection और manufacturing activities जो future me economy ko pick up करने में मदगार साबित होंगे l The RBI also said that the National Statistical Office (NSO) will formally announce the GDP numbers for the second quarter in end-November.

Economy contraction ke साथ साथ, the central bank also flagged the downside risk of high inflation in the coming months. The RBI flagged two more concerns, that of the second wave of virus and a “stress intensifying among households and corporations that have been delayed but not mitigated”. Covid 19 के second wave का effect external demand par हो सकता है l while the stress in households and corporations ran a risk of spilling over to the financial sector.

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